It is known that a particular type of software test is certain to identify virus X if it has been inserted into a computer system.
Discussion Question 1:
It is known that a particular type of software test is certain to identify virus X if it has been inserted into a computer system. However, there is also a 5% probability of a false alarm (i.e., there is a 5% probability that the test will be positive when virus X has not been inserted). You run the test and the outcome is positive.
- What can you conclude about whether or not the system really is infected with the virus X?
- How would your answer to (i) change if, additionally, it was known that virus X had been inserted into approximately one in every thousand computer systems?
- Suppose the only known effective fix for virus X costs $250,000 when the full costs of system shutdown and repair are considered. From a risk assessment perspective what action would you recommend (you should state any assumptions about additional information needed).
Discussion Question 2:
Why are statistics necessary? Why can experimenters not just look at the data and decide for themselves what is important? On the other hand, which of the following is more important: (a) the results of a statistical test or (b) the results of the intraocular significance test (i.e., when the effect leaps out and hits you between the eyes)?
Requirements: minimum 300 words each question
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